Approximately 16,500 anticipated fatalities due to climate change during Europe's summer months, according to research findings
In a groundbreaking study, researchers from Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, along with Akshay Deoras from the University of Reading, have linked the death toll during this summer's heatwaves to global warming.
The rapid attribution study estimated that approximately 16,500 excess deaths occurred in European cities this summer, with nearly 70% of these deaths attributed to global warming. The findings, published in a scientific journal, highlight the dire consequences of climate change on public health.
Rome topped the list of cities with the most estimated deaths attributed to climate change, with 835 deaths, followed by Athens with 630 and Paris with 409. However, it's important to note that the estimates are projections based on methods such as modelling used in previously peer-reviewed studies.
The researchers used climate modelling to estimate that global warming made temperatures an average of 2.2°C hotter in 854 European cities between June and August. This summer was Europe's fourth-hottest on record, a factor that significantly contributed to the heat-related deaths.
Atmospheric science researcher Akshay Deoras at the UK's University of Reading stated that the actual death toll could be even higher. The study emphasised that the methods used in attribution studies are scientifically robust and conservative.
The study did not represent Europe as a whole as some areas, such as the Balkans, were not included. However, a Nature Medicine study from 2023 determined there were more than 47,000 heat-related deaths during the European summer of that year.
More than 85% of the estimated excess deaths were among people aged 65 or over. Death tolls during heatwaves are thought to be underestimated due to causes of death recorded in hospitals being heart, breathing, or other health problems that particularly affect the elderly during heatwaves.
The researchers were not able to compare their estimates to actual excess deaths recorded in European cities this summer because most countries take a long time to publish that data.
Prominent climate and health researchers have backed the study, with co-author Garyfallos Konstantinoudis stating that an increase in heatwave temperature of just 2-4°C can be the difference between life and death for thousands of people. The estimates of excess deaths due to climate change in European cities this summer are considered to be in the right ballpark by study co-author Friederike Otto.
The study serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need to address climate change and its impact on public health. As temperatures continue to rise, it's crucial that we take action to protect the most vulnerable members of our society.
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