Approximately 16,500 deaths attributed to climate change during Europe's summer, according to research findings
In a rapid but yet-to-be-peer-reviewed study, British researchers from the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine have estimated that human-caused climate change was responsible for approximately 16,500 deaths in European cities this summer.
The team used climate modeling to estimate that global warming made temperatures an average of 2.2 degrees Celsius hotter in 854 European cities between June and August. This summer, which was Europe's fourth-hottest on record, saw Rome experience the most estimated deaths attributed to climate change, with 835, followed by Athens with 630 and Paris with 409.
More than 85% of the estimated excess deaths were among people aged 65 or over. Heatwaves are thought to cause vastly underestimated death tolls due to the recording of heart, breathing, or other health problems in hospitals.
Climate change could have tripled the number of heat deaths this summer, according to the study's co-author, Garyfallos Konstantinoudis. Akshay Deoras, an atmospheric science researcher at the UK's University of Reading, stated that the methods used in these attribution studies are scientifically robust and conservative, implying the actual death toll could be higher.
The estimates align with previous peer-reviewed research, such as the Nature Medicine study from 2023, which reported over 47,000 heat-related deaths during the European summer. However, it's important to note that the estimates in this study are projections based on modeling, as most countries take a long time to publish the actual excess deaths recorded in European cities during the summer.
The study did not represent Europe as a whole because some areas, such as the Balkans, were not included. Nevertheless, numerous prominent climate and health researchers have backed the study.
Heatwaves are a growing concern as global temperatures rise, and this study underscores the urgent need for action to mitigate the impacts of climate change on public health. The researchers plan to continue their work, aiming to improve their methods and expand their research to other regions.
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